GEW Assessment Report


This is a life-or-death question for the Palestinian nation. It is not true that negotiations alone can lead to independence. Negotiations are nothing but the expression of power balance on the field. It is then on the battlefield that everything is decided.

According to the political scientist Charles Tilly, the statement, « War made the state, and the state made war. » We find various historical examples supporting this assertion.

The Warring States period in ancient China (535-286 BCE) is a prime example. This era was characterised by constant warfare, leading to bureaucratic and military reforms and consolidation. The incessant conflicts led to the organisation of entire states for war. The military and political developments during this period were the basis of the power of the Qin state, which eventually conquered the other states and unified them under the Qin Empire in 221 BC[1]. Similarly, in modern times, without winning the war against several enemies, Mao Tse Tung would not have been able to unify China under the CCP’s leadership, still in power.

The 20th and 21st centuries have experienced numerous wars, with conflict happening every year of the 20th century. These conflicts have resulted in the formation, transformation, and consolidation of many states, further supporting Tilly’s statement [2]. It is worth noting that the National Liberation Wars were fought against Western colonial powers. These wars resulted in the emergence of new sovereign states such as Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. The wars also extended to other countries, including Pakistan, the two Koreas, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and so on.

Born Through Wars

The USA and the ex-URSS were born through war. If the American or the Australian indigenous tribes won the war against Western colonialist settlers, would the USA or Australia exist today? Both were born through genocide perpetrated against the local populations unable to defend themselves with appropriate weapons. That is something that Palestinian leaders should consider thoroughly and never forget. Zionist colonialism emulates, since the beginning, the American and Australian models. Through pre-planned genocides, terrorism, and other extortion means, the local populations are decimated and expelled and become refugees in other countries, while the remaining become second-rank citizens in their countries.

Historical evidence suggests that the formation of the USA and Australia as we know them today was significantly influenced by the outcome of conflicts between indigenous populations and Western colonialist settlers.

In the case of the USA, Native American tribes resisted European colonial domination from the 16th century onwards. Despite some significant victories, the tribes were ultimately unable to prevent the expansion of European settlers due to their limited numbers and resources[3][4][5][6]. If the Native American tribes had resisted and repelled the settlers successfully, North America’s political and geographical landscape could have been significantly different.

Similarly, in Australia, the indigenous population faced conflict and dispossession with the arrival of British settlers in the late 18th century. The indigenous population was decimated by disease, conflict, and displacement. If the indigenous tribes had successfully resisted the British settlers, the development of Australia as a nation would have likely taken a different path.

War Created Israel

The history of Israel itself suggests that conflict and war played a significant role in the formation and development of the state. The establishment of Israel in 1948 was a result of the Zionist movement, which sought to create a Jewish homeland in Arab Palestine. This led to a series of conflicts with the local Palestinian population and neighbouring Arab states, which have continued to this day[7][8].

The 1948 War, the Sinai War of 1956, the Six-Day War of 1967, the Yom Kippur War of 1973, and other conflicts have shaped the Israeli perception of identity and political, social, and military institutions. These wars have also influenced Israel’s policies towards the Arab states and the Palestinian population[8].

Western Talk About Peace Is A Lie: How Did They Handle Genocide in Gaza?

In the case of Palestine, the absence of a recognised Palestinian state today is due to a variety of factors, including the Israeli refusal of a Palestinian sovereign state and the continual colonialist settlements, internal Palestinian political divisions, and the policies of the Western states still opposed to Palestinian sovereignty. Suffice it to see how they supported and supervised the genocide in Gaza.

This does not mean that the formation of a Palestinian state is impossible, but it is evident that it would necessarily require war.
War means more support in weapons, funding and other assistance. It is also self-evident that no nation would sacrifice itself to save another. The Palestinian nationalists should not expect Arab states to make such a sacrifice for the independent Palestine. Nor should they expect Arab states’ leaders (who don’t give a f… about their own people) to support them by other means than empty talk. They should be self-reliant and self-resourceful. There are powerful nations with a score to settle with the West, which may help them. The fight will be long, but they should never give up. The right, without a force to support it, will become “red-skin Indian” or “Arboriginal” in Palestine.
International recognition would not come without a real fight. It needs to be helped by a continual nationalist armed struggle against the enemies of Palestinian freedom.

My prediction is the Palestinian state will inevitably be established through a complex and protracted war against Israel sooner or later. Israel cannot sustain a protracted war with a unified Palestinian nationalist movement. No imperialist power, including the USA, has been able to sustain such a war. Read contemporary history.

There is no diplomatic solution for the Palestinian cause in the absence of a power balance favourable to Palestinian independence and sovereignty. If the Palestinian leaders accept a « solution » dictated by the US-Israeli axis, it would be only an « aspirin » against cancer. That’s the late Oslo process, born dead. Any “solution” dictated by Israel and the West under such conditions means only gaining time for Israel to become more powerful and able to decimate the Palestinian population and replace it with settlers forever. Most of all, don’t believe the Arab leaders who claim to be the guarantee for peace. They work only for their personal interests. We see it. We hear it. We read it. We know it.


Notes and References


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